The rise of right-wing forces in post–5 August politics—particularly the ongoing effort by Islamic parties to unite ahead of the next national election—has put the BNP in a dilemma.

The party’s policymakers believe that, in the absence of the Awami League (whose activities are currently banned), Islamists may emerge as BNP’s main rival in the upcoming election. In this context, BNP is also devising counter-strategies, taking into account the Islamist “vote bank.”

As part of this, BNP has taken initiatives to meet and strengthen ties not only with various Islamist parties but also with important religious figures in the country.

Recently, BNP Standing Committee members Nazrul Islam Khan and Salahuddin Ahmed met Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh’s Ameer Allama Muhibbullah Babunagari, Chattogram Hathazari Madrasa's director general Mufti Khalil Ahmad Qasemi, chief Shaykhul Hadith Sheikh Ahmad and Shah Sharsina Darbar Sharif’s pir Abu Nasr Nesar Uddin Ahmad Hossain.

They sought blessings, advice, and cooperation for BNP ahead of the election.

When asked, Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Ameer Syed Abdullah Muhammad Taher told Prothom Alo, “Electoral politics hasn’t truly started yet. We are hopeful about electoral understandings with Islamic as well as other patriotic parties.”

Interestingly, Islamist parties—including Jamaat, NCP, and Islami Andolan—have been speaking in unison about the demand for elections after reforms are carried out. If the effort to consolidate Islamist votes succeeds, these parties could become BNP’s main electoral rivals—a scenario BNP leadership wishes to avoid.

To counter this, BNP has stepped up efforts to strengthen relations with Hefazat-e-Islam and other prominent Islamic scholars, assigning special responsibility to senior Standing Committee members, including Salahuddin Ahmed.

Salahuddin told Prothom Alo: “We are a party that believes in Islamic values. As a Muslim-majority country, we must create unity with like-minded Islamic parties and make it visible—so that people don’t mistakenly think we are against the Islamists. We need to show that religious figures and Islamic parties support us.”

Currently, five parties, led by Islami Andolan, are working toward an electoral alliance. These include Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. In their latest liaison committee meeting, Jamiat did not participate, but Islami Andolan, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Khelafat Majlis (faction), and Nezam-e-Islam Party were present.

Two new groups-- Bangladesh Khelafat Andolan (Habibullah Miaji, founded by Hafizzi Huzur) and Bangladesh Islami Oikya Jote (Abdul Kader–Sakhawat Hossain, founded by Mufti Fazlul Haque Amini)-- joined as well.

A senior Jamiat figure said that, given current political dynamics, Jamaat appears set to become BNP’s main rival in the coming election. But since many Qawmi-aligned scholars have historically opposed Jamaat on theological grounds, it is doubtful whether Qawmi parties will unite with Jamaat

However, Jamiat Secretary General Manzurul Islam Afendi said the environment is not yet ripe for an electoral understanding. He told Prothom Alo: “We are always sincere about unity. But the atmosphere isn’t right yet. The way and scale of unity we want hasn’t been reflected in the messages from them (Islami Andolan and others).”

Some Islamist leaders believe Jamiat will ultimately not join the Islamist alliance. A senior Jamiat figure said that, given current political dynamics, Jamaat appears set to become BNP’s main rival in the coming election.

But since many Qawmi-aligned scholars have historically opposed Jamaat on theological grounds, it is doubtful whether Qawmi parties will unite with Jamaat. He suggested Jamiat would eventually side with BNP. This leader himself contested in 2018 as a BNP-nominated candidate and hopes for nomination again.

BNP leaders acknowledge that the rise of right-wing forces since 5 August—especially efforts to consolidate Islamist votes—has caused concern. Thus, BNP is carefully monitoring developments while building ties with Hefazat and other Islamic groups.

It can be noted that most of the parties now trying to unite Islamist votes had previously been BNP allies, but left during the Awami League’s rule. Many of them reconnected with BNP around the time of last year’s political shift on 5 August. Some of these parties were active in anti-fascist movements in various forms.

Meanwhile, Islami Andolan’s senior joint secretary general Gazi Ataur Rahman stressed their strong stance on unity.

“Those now talking about ideological differences with Jamaat were long allied with them. This is not about ideology—they simply want seats and winning chances. They know they cannot win without BNP, and that’s the bottom line,” Gaza Ataur Rahman said.

Jamaat or Charmonai Pir are free to look for electoral partners—that’s their strategy. We have no negative view or anxiety about it

According to BNP insiders, the party is now ready to forge electoral understandings with Islamist groups other than Jamaat, despite Jamaat having been a close ally for nearly two decades. BNP has distanced itself from Jamaat in recent years and tried to fill the gap by engaging Islami Andolan, even attending Charmonai Pir’s events. But Islami Andolan has taken opposing stances on reforms and elections, disappointing BNP.

Salahuddin Ahmed told Prothom Alo, “Jamaat or Charmonai Pir are free to look for electoral partners—that’s their strategy. We have no negative view or anxiety about it.”

Nonetheless, many observers doubt whether the Islamist unity effort will succeed, citing past failures. Some analysts argue these attempts are bargaining tactics with BNP rather than a genuine threat.

Researcher and writer Sharif Muhammad said BNP’s real worry is different, that is with Awami League absent from the polls, where will the votes of Islamists go? At the same time, BNP’s grassroots image is weakening, while NCP—though organisationally weak—could still wield some influence.

These issues, he argued, are what matter most for BNP in electoral politics.