The negligence of the government regarding the labor market in the diaspora has come to the fore with 31,000 Bangladeshi workers going to Malaysia becoming uncertain.

Besides, global inflation, economic slowdown and low unemployment rate are having a negative impact on remittances. Considering the overall situation, the government is moving towards reducing the growth target of expatriates’ remittance income in the upcoming (2024-25) budget.

The potential growth rate has been pegged at 7 percent, down 3 percent from the revised target for the current fiscal year. 2 thousand 254 crores (22.54 billion) US dollars in rupees. This announcement will be in the new budget in the national parliament on Thursday. Sources concerned have confirmed this.

However, according to the recently published World Bank report, the remittance flow may fall to 5 percent in the fiscal year 2023-24 due to weak economic growth in the United States, Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Which will affect the remittance income.

Economists feel that the manpower export sector is becoming corrupt. Remittance flow will not increase if this sector is not strengthened with transparency, good management and corruption free.

Recently, the parliamentary committee related to the Ministry of Finance held a meeting to increase expatriate income. In that meeting, it has been proposed to increase the remittance incentive to 3 percent. At present, the incentive is 2.5 percent i.e. 2.5 taka against every US dollar remittance.

According to sources, the finance department has recently held several meetings as an initiative to increase expatriate remittances. In that meeting, the growth in this sector in the current financial year was increased from 7.89 percent to the revised target of 10 percent. In the next budget, the target has been fixed at 7 percent.

The growth of this sector for the next two financial years (2025-26 and 2026-27) is assumed to be the same, i.e. the growth is kept at 7 percent. In this case the growth was not increased.

Recently, an inter-ministerial meeting regarding the review of the macroeconomic condition of the country was held in the Ministry of Finance. Finance Minister Abul Hasan Mahmud Ali took part in the meeting, Secretary of the Ministry of Expatriate Welfare and Foreign Employment Md. Ruhul Amin.

There, he said, compared to December 2022, workers went abroad till December 2023 more than 28 percent. That is, 1 lakh 60 thousand as a number. But it is necessary to track how many people have returned at the same time. He informed that a procedure is being formulated for this purpose.

Research shows that the main obstacle to sending workers abroad is language. Basically, Bangladeshi workers have little command of Arabic, Korean, Chinese, English and Japanese languages. If this can be eliminated, the demand for workers will increase, which will have a positive impact on remittances.

When asked, economist MK Mujeri told Yugantar that there are many problems in exporting manpower. What is happening in the country with a market like Malaysia. There are weaknesses in this sector, not being managed properly. He said that the number of workers who have gone abroad in the past few years, remittances are not coming to the country.

There are many other reasons besides Hundi. This sector has become corrupt. Remittance flow will not increase if the manpower export sector cannot be strengthened by making it transparent, good management and free from corruption. Although remittances should increase, there is potential. But not able to do that.

According to Bangladesh Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BMET), a record 13 lakh 5 thousand 453 Bangladeshis migrated in search of livelihood in 2023. Last year the number of Bangladeshi immigrants was 11 lakh 35 thousand 873.

In other words, more than 24 lakh Bangladeshis went abroad for work in two years, but the remittance did not increase accordingly. In particular, remittance flows from the country have halved despite a record number of migrant workers in the main labor market, Saudi Arabia. Expatriate inflows from labor markets other than the UAE are also declining.

The global crisis is also responsible for shrinking the global labor market. The ongoing crisis is more than the economic crisis of 2008. According to the data of the Central Bank, in the first 10 months (July-April) of the current financial year (2023-24), remittances have arrived in the country 1 thousand 911 crores or 19.11 billion dollars. During the same period of the previous financial year, expatriates sent remittances of 17.71 billion dollars to the country. Accordingly, in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, there has been a 7.88 percent growth in remittances. The World Bank estimates that the country will receive 23 billion dollars in remittances in 2024.

According to sources, remittances are not being increased due to hundi. No matter how much the bank offers to collect remittances, the hundi is being overcharged. The gangs are expanding their web in ever new ways. Meanwhile, people in the center of power are also getting involved in the hundi business.

Analysts say, Hundi cannot be stopped due to these reasons. In this regard, Central Bank Governor Abdur Rauf Talukder said, “At least 200 accounts are being closed every day to stop hundi.”

The second reason is the unwillingness of the banks to give additional incentives or to reduce the informal rates despite the fixed rates. If one dollar remittance was sent, the government was giving 2.5 percent and the related banks were giving incentives at the same rate. That is, the incentive was 5 percent against one dollar. Now the banks have withdrawn the benefit of that incentive. This is also seen as a reason for not sending remittances validly.