Oil prices have risen again in the global market due to increased demand for fuel as winter sets in and the confidence of investors boosted by China's stimulus package. This is expected to provide a boost to China's growth. As of Monday, Brent crude oil prices increased by 15 cents or 0.2%, reaching $76.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 22 cents or 0.3%, hitting $74.18 per barrel. This marks the highest oil price since October 11.

Meanwhile, China continues to implement various measures to stimulate its economy. Last Friday, the Chinese government announced plans to inject more funds into the market through long-term bonds in 2025, aiming to boost business activity. The People's Bank of China has also signaled the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system.

China's economy has been struggling in recent years, and in a move to reduce pollution, it has increased the use of environmentally friendly fuels in its transport sector. As a result, its crude oil imports have decreased, affecting its position as the world's largest oil importer and second-largest consumer.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Iran's oil production and exports will decline in the second quarter of 2025 due to policy changes and tougher sanctions under the new U.S. administration. The daily oil output of Iran could decrease by 300,000 barrels, bringing it down to 3.25 million barrels. Additionally, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased last week.

After a period of low prices, oil prices began rising in 2021. The Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 pushed crude oil prices to a peak of $139 per barrel, with an average price above $100 throughout the year. However, the prices started to fall afterward, with the highest price in 2023 being $98 per barrel and an average of $83. Despite OPEC's decisions to raise prices, they did not have much impact. Even the Hamas-Israel conflict in the Middle East did not significantly affect oil prices.

In 2024, oil prices fell further, averaging below $70, and J.P. Morgan forecasts prices could drop to $60 in 2025.