Historian Arash Azizi, author of What Iranians Want, warns that Iran could face severe internal turmoil — even the risk of civil war — if instability deepens. According to him, such a scenario would be a catastrophic nightmare for the country.

At this stage, some observers argue that chaos itself may serve strategic objectives. Israel has long been accused of applying a “divide and rule” approach in the region — from Palestine to more recently Syria. By escalating tensions in southern Syria, Israel has increased pressure on the country’s new leadership following the dramatic removal of long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad.

On Saturday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Iranians to take to the streets in large numbers and complete the task of changing their government. However, critics fear that Israel may ultimately prefer a weakened and unstable Iran over a strong, prosperous, and Western-aligned one.

Even without external involvement, removing the deeply entrenched power structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be extremely difficult. Such a powerful and well-armed institution cannot simply be dismantled through limited military strikes.

Azizi argues that real authority currently rests with Iran’s military-dominated security council, which he says has effectively been running the country since June. He predicts that rival factions will now compete for influence over future leadership.

He further suggests that whoever rises to power in Tehran may need to recalibrate policies to ensure survival. Could hardline anti-American and anti-Israel ideology fade with the departure of the Supreme Leader? Might figures such as Ali Larijani, a former IRGC official and security council chief, open the door to negotiations with Washington?

Azizi also questions whether the United States would be satisfied with such an outcome — or whether it genuinely believes that the Iranian public will rise up and seize power themselves, possibly transferring authority to an exiled figure like Reza Pahlavi.