This year, 2025, is on track to become the second or third warmest year ever recorded, according to scientists at the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). They also expect 2024 to remain the hottest year in history.

At last month’s COP30 climate summit, countries failed to reach any meaningful agreement on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, exposing deep geopolitical divisions. The United States is scaling back its climate commitments, and several nations are attempting to weaken carbon-reduction regulations.

In its monthly bulletin, C3S noted that the global average temperature in 2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). If that happens, it will mark the first time this threshold has been crossed for three consecutive years.

Extreme weather has continued worldwide this year. Over 200 people died in the Philippines after Typhoon Kalmayegi struck last month, and Spain saw its worst wildfire in three decades. Scientists say climate change is making such events more frequent and more severe.

Last year—2024—was confirmed as the hottest year ever measured. Although natural climate variations occur from year to year, researchers agree that long-term global warming is being driven primarily by greenhouse gases released from burning fossil fuels.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, all of the last ten years have been the warmest since global temperature records began.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C to avoid the most catastrophic climate impacts. But the United Nations warned this year that achieving the 1.5°C target is no longer feasible. It urged nations to rapidly cut carbon emissions to minimize the damage even if the target is exceeded.

C3S maintains global temperature records dating back to 1940, which it cross-checks with other historical datasets reaching back to the mid-19th century.