Bangladesh imported 14.36 lakh tonnes of rice in the 2024–25 fiscal year, the highest volume in seven years, according to official figures. The spike in imports follows a reported shortfall in domestic output, although some experts question the accuracy of the production data.

The last time imports were higher was in FY2017–18, when 31.6 lakh tonnes were brought in. Officials say this year’s increase was largely due to severe flooding in August and September 2024, which destroyed around 10 lakh tonnes of Aman paddy in Chattogram, Sylhet, and Mymensingh divisions.

Food Adviser Ali Imam Majumder said the damage to crops just before flowering created an urgent need for imports. Full production figures for FY25 are not yet available, but preliminary Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data show Aus and Aman output at 1.93 crore tonnes—a 1.5% drop from the previous year.

Boro rice, which accounts for about 55% of total annual production, has not yet been included in the BBS figures. The Department of Agricultural Extension estimates Boro output at 2.26 crore tonnes from 50.69 lakh hectares, while the US Department of Agriculture projects a lower figure of 2.05 crore tonnes. Based on USDA estimates, total rice production this fiscal year would be 3.98 crore tonnes—exceeding the national demand of 3.80 crore tonnes, according to the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

This has raised questions about the reliability of production data. “If the numbers were correct, we shouldn’t be facing such shortages or price hikes,” said Mohammad Khalequzzaman, Director General of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute. Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam Khan echoed this view, pointing out that despite record output last year, rice prices still rose sharply.

Data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh show that in FY2023–24, the price of fine rice rose 16%, medium-grade rice by 14%, and coarse rice by 12%. Such increases hit low-income households hardest, as rice remains the country’s main staple.

Experts warn that Bangladesh’s food grain production is under strain from shrinking farmland, a lack of improved high-yield varieties, rising input costs, and declining farmer profitability. They say better and more timely production data from the BBS is critical to avoiding supply mismanagement and ensuring informed policy decisions on imports and stock control.