Supporters of the “MAGA” worldview in the United States tend to back political forces in Europe that sit on the far right. Unlike the post–Second World War era—when Washington actively promoted European cooperation—the Trump administration seeks to exploit dissatisfaction among newer EU member states. Its aim is to weaken the European Union’s liberal democratic foundations and push Europe toward a looser grouping of sovereign states defined by intense nationalism and a narrow, exclusionary cultural identity.

Through inconsistent and fragmented actions, the administration may try to pressure the EU while simultaneously assisting far-right parties in their quest for power. In such a world, Europe would no longer stand in the way of the MAGA ideological project. Yet the central problem for Trump’s team is that it lacks both the institutional capacity and the global ambition required to bring about such a transformation.

Much like Russia, this administration demands respect but possesses limited real influence beyond disruptive behavior. It wants to shape Europe while also reducing engagement with it, and it appears eager to retreat from its long-standing role as NATO’s primary security guarantor.

Trump’s strategic outlook openly attacks the extensive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign-aid apparatus that once underpinned American global leadership. His administration has worked systematically to hollow out this infrastructure. Without it, however, the United States would be incapable of reshaping Europe in its own image.

Certainly, Washington could attempt to punish the EU through ad hoc measures while helping far-right movements. It has already denied visas to individuals involved in fact-checking or content moderation, accusing them of suppressing conservative views, and has threatened Brussels for daring to regulate platforms such as X. Yet Brazil offers a cautionary example: efforts to penalize officials and bolster Jair Bolsonaro backfired badly, suggesting such tactics may harm ideological allies more than help them.

Ultimately, the Trump administration seeks both international prestige and the benefits of global soft power—hence its fixation on Europe. At the same time, it wants to scale back its global role, reduce its capabilities, and turn the United States into a more regionally focused power, akin to Russia, exerting dominance primarily over its neighbors. These two ambitions, however, cannot be reconciled.

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Adapted and summarized from an opinion piece by Henry Farrell and Sergey Radchenko, originally published in The Guardian.