According to official records, 61 cases of enforced disappearance were reported in 2012 while the Awami League was in power, with the figure more than doubling the following year. A similar pattern was observed around later elections, including in 2018, when the number of disappearances exceeded that of the year that followed.

Presenting year-by-year data, the report of the Commission of Inquiry into Enforced Disappearances states that incidents tended to increase ahead of national elections. During these periods, leaders, activists and supporters of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were deliberately targeted.

Over the Awami League’s 16-year rule, enforced disappearance became a recurring phenomenon, the report notes. After the government was toppled in 2024 following a mass uprising led by students and the public, an interim administration formed the inquiry commission. The five-member body, headed by Justice Moinul Islam Chowdhury, submitted its final report to the Chief Adviser on January 4.

Page 16 of the report states that large-scale arrests and selective disappearances of BNP and Jamaat leaders and activists were routinely carried out in the lead-up to elections.

During the Awami League’s tenure, three national elections were held—in 2014, 2018 and 2024—amid widespread political repression. All three polls were controversial. Most political parties boycotted the elections in 2014 and 2024. Although all major parties participated in the 2018 election, allegations of ballot stuffing before voting day led it to be widely described as a “night-time vote.”

The commission found a clear link between fluctuations in disappearance cases and major political turning points, security crises and election cycles. The sharp rise in disappearances in 2013, for example, coincided with the election held on January 5, 2014. A similar trend was identified around the 2018 election.

The report further states that ahead of the 2014, 2018 and 2024 elections, BNP and Jamaat leaders and activists were disproportionately affected by enforced disappearances. In addition, law enforcement agencies were found to have detained opposition figures before major political rallies and protests.

According to the commission, 948 individuals were subjected to enforced disappearance for political reasons, while 157 people remain missing. The figure of 948 includes both those who later returned and those who remain unaccounted for.

Among the victims, members of Jamaat-e-Islami and its affiliated organisations make up the largest group overall. However, those who never returned after being taken—classified as permanently missing—were more likely to be affiliated with the BNP and its allied groups.

Of those still missing, 68 percent were BNP or Jubo Dal leaders and activists, while 22 percent were linked to Jamaat-Shibir.

The report emphasises that understanding political identity is crucial to analysing enforced disappearances. It helps determine who faced the greatest risk and whether disappearances were random law-and-order incidents or part of a targeted and systematic strategy.

The commission documented a total of 1,564 cases of enforced disappearance between 2009 and 2024. The highest number was recorded in 2016, with 215 cases, followed by 2017 with 194 cases and 2018 with 192. The number dropped to 118 in 2019, fell further in 2020 and 2021 to 51 and 56 respectively, then rose again to 110 in 2022. The figures declined to 65 in 2023 and 47 in 2024. In August of that year, Sheikh Hasina was removed from power and left the country.

When the Awami League returned to power in 2009, 10 disappearance cases were recorded. The number steadily increased over the following years—34 in 2010, 47 in 2011, 61 in 2012, and a sharp rise to 128 in 2013. Although the figure fell to 95 in 2014, it climbed again to 141 in 2015.

A total of 1,913 complaints were submitted to the commission. After verification, 1,569 were confirmed as enforced disappearances under the commission’s definition. Of these, 287 cases were categorised as “missing and deceased.”

The report also identifies a connection between changes in leadership within security agencies and shifts in disappearance trends. It notes that when Major General Ziaul Ahsan was removed from his post as RAB’s additional director general (operations) in 2016, the number of disappearance cases declined.

However, the commission stresses that this did not mean the practice ended. Instead, fewer people were permanently disappeared, while many were later found in detention or produced before courts.

The report adds that US sanctions imposed on RAB in December 2021 disrupted the pattern of enforced disappearances for a short time, though the effect did not last. It also states that laws framed for counterterrorism and preventive detention were used by the Awami League government as tools to suppress political opposition.

Following its return to power in 2009, the Awami League faced strong domestic and international criticism over extrajudicial killings. The same year, Bangladesh underwent review under the UN’s Universal Periodic Review mechanism, increasing international scrutiny of its human rights record. Under pressure to adopt a zero-tolerance policy on extrajudicial killings, the report suggests the government altered its approach—shifting from overt killings to enforced disappearances as a means of silencing dissent.