A depression over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a deep depression and could develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday, Bangladesh’s Meteorological Department has warned.

According to a special weather bulletin issued on Sunday, the system may be named Arnab if it develops into a cyclone. However, another low-pressure system currently active over the Arabian Sea could receive the name first if it becomes a cyclone earlier.

Meteorologist A.K.M. Nazmul Haque said the likelihood of the potential cyclone moving towards Bangladesh was very low, with the Andhra Pradesh coast of India considered a more likely destination. However, he cautioned that its effects on Bangladesh could not be ruled out entirely.

Cyclone Could Approach India’s Andhra Pradesh Coast

The Meteorological Department said the deep depression was located at noon on Sunday, approximately 810 kilometres south of Chattogram Port, 730 kilometres south of Cox’s Bazar Port, 840 kilometres south of Mongla Port and 780 kilometres south of Payra Port.

The system is moving southwestward and is expected to intensify further. It could develop into a cyclone over the east-central and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal on Monday.

The system is then forecast to gradually change direction and move west-northwestward, potentially intensifying into a very severe cyclonic storm before crossing India’s Andhra Pradesh coast around Wednesday.

Winds sustained near the centre of the deep depression were reaching a maximum speed of 50 kilometres per hour, with gusts potentially increasing to 60 kilometres per hour. Sea conditions were reported to be rough near the system’s centre.

Maritime Warning Issued for Four Ports

Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Mongla and Payra seaports have been advised to maintain local cautionary signal No. 1 due to the deep depression.

Fishing boats and trawlers in the northern Bay of Bengal have been advised not to venture into the deep sea. They have also been instructed to remain close to the coast and navigate cautiously until further notice.

Rainfall Expected Across Bangladesh

The potential cyclone could bring increased rainfall to coastal areas of Khulna, Barishal and Chattogram from October 27. Rain may also spread to Khulna, Rajshahi and Rangpur regions from October 29, according to the weather forecast.

The department’s 120-hour forecast, issued at 6 pm on Sunday, outlined the following outlook:

• Sunday, October 25: Temporary rain or thundershowers accompanied by gusty winds are possible at one or two places in Chattogram Division. Elsewhere, the weather is expected to remain mainly dry, with partly cloudy skies at times.
• Monday, October 26: Some places in Chattogram Division and one or two places in Khulna and Barishal divisions may experience rain or thundershowers accompanied by gusty winds.
• Tuesday, October 27: Many places in Khulna, Barishal and Chattogram divisions may receive rain or thundershowers. Isolated areas in Rajshahi, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions may also experience rainfall.
• Wednesday, October 28: Many places in Rajshahi, Khulna, Barishal and Chattogram divisions may experience rain or thundershowers. Scattered rainfall is also possible in Rangpur, Dhaka, Mymensingh and Sylhet divisions.
• Thursday, October 29: Rain or thundershowers accompanied by gusty winds may affect most places in Rangpur, Rajshahi and Khulna divisions, as well as many places in Dhaka, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Barishal and Chattogram divisions. Heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur in some parts of the country.

Why the Potential Cyclone May Be Named Arnab

Thirteen countries in the region propose names for cyclones developing over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. These countries are Bangladesh, India, Iran, the Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

The names are selected in sequence from lists submitted by the member countries of the World Meteorological Organization’s regional panel.

According to the current list, the next cyclone name is Arnab, proposed by Bangladesh. The name means “ocean.” However, the name will be assigned to whichever of the two active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea first develops into a cyclone.

The name after Arnab is Murasu, proposed by India. In Tamil, Murasu refers to a traditional drum.

Cyclone naming helps authorities communicate forecasts and warnings more clearly, particularly when multiple storms are active in the region at the same time.